The NCAA Finals Matchup

It all boils down to the number 1 and number 2 team after all, and so my Final Four prediction is only half-correct, as the San Sebastian Stags upsets the Jose Rizal Heavy Bombers in a blowout in the second game, as the San Beda Red Lions gets a 6-day break preparing for the Finals.

San Beda College Red Lions vs San Sebastian College-Recoletos Stags

The Red Lions stayed pretty much in the number 2 slot the rest of the elimination round. However, after their loss against the JRU Heavy Bombers that put the Lions down at the number 3 slot, the Red Lions went on to win its last remaining games and forced a playoff against the number 1 team for most of the eliminations, the San Sebastian Stags, and won that game to seal the number 1 seeding.

Riding on a winning streak and with plenty of rest heading into the Finals, the Red Lions looks as prepared as ever on capturing their fourth straight NCAA crown for the decade, although things look rough in their Final Four encounter against the Letran Knights, San Beda has the edge when it comes to Finals experience as well.

On the other hand, the season started strong for the San Sebastian Stags, winning their first 15 games to set an NCAA record for the best start in the eliminations, before being booted out of first place in a playoff encounter against the Red Lions.

Leading scorer Jimbo Aquino losing his cool in the playoff game, things look pretty bleaked on the Stags as they faced-off last year's finalist, the JRU Heavy Bombers. The Stags fought hard and fended off JRU's challenge as they move into the Finals for the first time since 2003.

Lately, the Red Lions got into the Stags' number, beating them in back-to-back games at the end of the season, and more importantly, holding and frustrating the Stags' leading scorer, Jimbo Aquino. Coach Frankie Lim would like to continue that trend with Jake Pascual limiting Aquino's touch and space to frustrate him and with John Hermida and Garvo Lanete pestering opposing guards Pamboy Raymundo and Raymond Maconocido.

Also, the Red Lions would like to slow the tempo down and force turnovers to get easy points. With their experience in the Finals, the Lions could afford to make the series into a half-court game, as this limits the Stags' running game and the Lions would not want to fall into the fast-paced game of their opponent. The Lions also needs to get back on defense quickly to prevent the Stags' hi-octane offense.

For the Stags', their losses against the Red Lions would have not come at a better time, as the Stags would learn a lot from those two games that they lost. In fact, those losses could be a blessing in disguise for the Stags, as these losses gave them an idea and will surely make their work cut-out for them to prepare for the adjustments they needed against the Lions.

The guards of the Stags are the important factor in this series, with Pamboy Raymundo and Raymond Maconocido must break the opposing press and make the right decisions on setting their team's play. Also, Jimbo Aquino must not force things and let the game come to him. The Stags would not want to be too predictable in their offense by letting Aquino do all the work, as the Stags have enough fire power on their team to create a balanced attack.

Also, it is very important for the Stags' frontline to get defensive rebounds and force turnovers to fuel their fast-paced game. The Stags needs to create opportunities for their fast-break game and convert on these easy-points as much as they can, as this will be crucial for them as surely, the Lions will try to force them into a slower-paced and more physical ball game. The Stags must keep their composure and do things that led them to win 15 straight games.

Prediction: Seeing the way the Stags manhandled the Heavy Bombers, the Stags might eek this one in three games. They have the talent, especially with their rookies, but will the Stags maintain their composure come crunchtime? I think they will.