The UAAP Final Four Matchup

It's been two rounds of basketball, 14 games involving 8 teams, and now only four remains after all the drama, upsets and jubilance, the Ateneo de Manila University Blue Eagles, Far Eastern University Tamaraws, University of the East Red Warriors, and the University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers will square it out for the battle for the 2009 UAAP Basketball supremacy.

The ADMU Blue Eagles and the FEU Tamaraws have a twice to beat advantage against the UST Growling Tigers and the UE Red Warriors respectively. However, with the on-court drama and even off the court, this is starting to heat up between the participants and it is time to breakdown the matchup of the Final Four teams.

Ateneo De Manila University Blue Eagles vs. University of Santo Tomas Growling Tigers

A reminiscent of the 2006 Championship. Similarly to the 2006 Championship, the Tigers are fighting for survival as the Blue Eagles have a twice-to-beat advantage. The Tigers have never lost a do-or-die game under coach Pido Jarencio's tenure with the team, but the Tigers are not looking so well heading into Sunday, as they have lost 3 straight games to finish the Eliminations at 6-8, as the Blue Eagles dominated the Elimination round with a 13-1 slate.

As the defending champions, the Blue Eagles will be spearheaded by Eric Salamat and last year's MVP and Smart Gilas member, Rabeh Al-Hussaini. Unlike in 2008 where they had Chris Tiu stepping up in the crucial moments, the Eagles will be expecting Salamat to carry them this time around, as his scoring and defense will surely of big help to the Eagles' cause. Meanwhile, Coach Norman Black will want Rabeh to be dominating the paint with Nonoy Baclao against the thin frontline of the Tigers. While it is expected that Salamat and Rabeh will carry the scoring load, it is crucial for the Blue Eagles' shooters Jai Reyes, Eman Monfort and Kirk Long to hit the long three's, while Baclao and Al-Hussaini needs to assert their presence inside and take advantage of their height to keep the Tigers out of their game, especially Ababou, Mirza and Teng. It will be best for Ateneo to slow the tempo down and not be tempted to the Tigers' running game, as the Blue Eagles does not want to give Ababou, Mirza and Teng a spark on their offense and running game.

Meanwhile, the Tigers will be led by the Smart Gilas member and MVP candidate Dylan Ababou, Khasim Mirza and the uprising rookie Jeric Teng. As for the Tigers, Pido Jarencio needs to make sure Ababou, Mirza and Teng gets it going on offense, while the team must double its effort on defense, particularly on Al-Hussaini and Salamat while closing out the shooters of Ateneo to have themselves a chance. It is also crucial for Chris Camus to avoid foul trouble, as the Tigers' frontline is not as deep compared to the Blue Eagles. The Tigers also has to make sure they get the defensive boards and not let the twin towers of Ateneo to score on putbacks and second chance points, and by getting rebounds, this could ignite a fastbreak opportunity to spark their offensive game. For the Tigers to have a better chance of defeating the Blue Eagles, Jeric Fortuna and Camus must play their hearts out, and Fortuna needs to make smart decisions on the court and hit the threes, as Camus needs to assert himself inside to make Al-Hussaini and Baclao feel that this will not be a walk in the park inside.

Prediction: Blue Eagles beats the Tigers on first try.

Far Eastern University Tamaraws vs University of the East Red Warriors

When I said earlier that even off the court, there is drama, I mean this. Mark Barroca goes out of FEU campaign this season and will focus on Smart Gilas and his studies instead due to game-fixing allegations on him. Looks like Barroca did not like the accusation, and decided to quit altogether in the middle of the season, which means this puts a dent on the Tamaraws' campaign after they finished the eliminations with a 11-3 record and opens up a chance for the Red Warriors to get a Finals slot this season, who ended with a 10-4 slate.

Now that the Tamaraws' will not be expecting Smart Gilas co-captain Mark Barroca's services, expect Glen Capacio's players to shift their offense with RR Garcia and Aldrech Ramos. Garcia needs to create plays for his teammates and himself to keep the Tamaraws' offense flowing, and the defense will be kept in check with the presence of Reil Cervantes and Ramos inside. JR Cawaling needs to step up his offensive game and Paul Sanga needs to hit those three point shots while Ramos should keep his game by moving without the ball and scoring on putbacks or pick n' rolls and Reil Cervantes must assert himself inside. For the Tamaraws', their chances now depends on Garcia, and partly on Jens Knuttel to step-up on playmaking duties, and while the Tamaraws' might be shocked that Barroca just quitted, this could be Garcia's chance to shine on the biggest stage of the season.

Meanwhile, Barroca's absence means the chances of the Red Warriors looks as good as ever. The free-flowing offense of coach Lawrance Chongson is starting to bloom, as evidenced by beating the Tamaraws' in their second meeting and by having a 6-game winning streak heading into the Final Four. Paul Lee, Pari Llagas and Elmer Espiritu will surely carry the Red Warriors offense. Lee needs to maintain on doing good decisions on the court while being more consistent on his scoring, as Llagas, like Cervantes needs to assert himself inside the court, and Espiritu's job will be similar to Ramos, by moving off the ball and aiming for those offensive rebounds and get second chance points. The battle of the frontline of the two teams will be interesting as Llagas-Espiritu and Cervantes-Ramos plays similar roles. Val Acuna needs to make sure that he uses the opportunity Paul Lee will be creating for him and score in bunches. The Red Warriors also has to make sure to stop RR Garcia, as most likely be the focal point of the Tamaraws' offense now that Barroca is out of the Tamaraws' lineup. This will be a battle of who wants to win more as teams are pretty similar in talent, although the favor now shifts slightly to UE after the Barroca debacle.

Prediction: UE will take this one, but this will go down the wire.